![IBM Q Dilution Refrigerator. Reducing the cost of the qubit may come with reduced need for such novel devices as this cooling unit. (Photo taken at 2018 ASCE. [Credit: Graham Carlow])](https://thequbitreport.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/IBM-Q-Dilution-Refrigerator-Medium-300x200.jpg)
Will We Ever Get Quantum Computers?
+ Consider D-Wave Systems. They’ve been trying to build a QC for twenty years, and indeed do have products more or less on the market, including, it’s claimed, one of 1024 q-bits. But there’s a lot of controversy about whether their machines are either quantum computers at all, or if they offer any speedup over classical machines. One would think that if a 1K q-bit machine really did work the press would be all abuzz, and we’d be hearing constantly of new incredible results. Instead, the machines seem to disappear into research labs.
Because of noise, expect errors. Some theorize that those errors can be eliminated by adding q-bits, on the order of 1000 to 100,000 additional per q-bit. So a useful machine will need at least millions, or perhaps many orders of magnitude more, of these squirrelly microdots that are tamed only by keeping them at 10 millikelvin.
+ Mr. Duakonov notes that optimistic people expect useful QCs in the next 5-10 years; those less sanguine expect 20-30 years, a prediction that hasn’t changed in two decades. He thinks a window of many decades to never is more realistic. Experts think that a useful machine, one that can do the sort of calculations your laptop is capable of, will require between 1000 and 100,000 q-bits. To me, this level of uncertainty suggests that there is a profound lack of knowledge about how these machines will work and what they will be able to do.
+ I was once afraid of quantum computing, as it involves mechanisms that I’ll never understand. But then I realized those machines will have an API. Just as one doesn’t need to know how a computer works to program in Python, we’ll be insulated from the quantum horrors by layers of abstraction.
Source: IOT Central. Jake Ganssle, Will We Ever Get Quantum Computers?
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